Tag: Stock Market

Mickey Mouse – a pair of safe hands?

mickey-mouse-dollarCome on, who doesn’t like a bit of Mickey? Disney is that happy place where everything is just fine. Isn’t it?

Well, actually there is a surprising amount of fear in many classic Disney movies, death is frequent though not often bloody and “scenes of peril” are practically essential before the hero to makes their move. But essentially good always wins through and you can rely on Disney to let you leave a movie with a smile and sense that all is well with the world.

Having been to Disneyland Paris many times now, I am always impressed at how everything is kept so perfect. neat and tidy. The rides and attractions seem to be just as they might have been on opening day (unlike our UK counterparts!) and you do feel like you are in another, better world. Our kids don’t even realise it is in France, not because they can understand all the announcements, but it doesn’t feel like any particular country, just Disneyland.

But what about the business end? Is this a company one should invest in?

Well obviously yes. Let’s face it, Disney is nowhere near closing its books, in fact with just the Star Wars franchise alone as well as all the other enduring assets they have – Frozen for one being a HUGE success and no sign of it slowing down – they are well set to enjoy many more years of financial success.

So what of the stock? Is this a time to buy?

Well this is what brought me to take this subject today. You see, one other area that we are less aware of in the UK is their US TV presence and what they broadcast. Now I don’t know the details, it doesn’t really matter, but I do know they have been getting disappointing figures here, I think over some sports fixtures (???) and as a result, the stock price has been dropping off since it peaked in 2015, this coupled with the general anxiety over stocks before the US Election results is, I believe, making a good buying opportunity for Disney Stock.

When it peaked in 2015 it got to around $120 per share, it is now down to around $92 per share. Though nothing is ever certain, I can’t see this stock going down into the low $80s again so anything around $90 is probably a sure long-term winner. It is very probable that by the end of the year it is back at least to $100 so even if you buy it now at $92.50 that would be roughly a 9% return, in three months….you won’t see that in the high st!

Even if though, things struggle for other reasons, you will be able to sleep at night knowing Mickey is looking after your money. I don’t want to try to be a “Stock picker” here but if you have money to invest, an opportunity like this is surely a safe one. Disney is not likely to go out of fashion, unlike other trends like say Nike for example. The Mouse has been around for 80 yrs and has no sign of dropping out of the race any time soon.

Take the plunge then, make that pension plan for your Grandchildren ‘cos in 40yrs time, those shares are going to be worth…….?

In 2006 they were $25.00. Let’s assume they end this year (as I like round numbers) at $100 again. That’s 400% return in 10 yrs (+ dividends) You can do the math…..s.

May the force be with you,

Chris K.

Love Pizza? You could eat it every day if you had bought in.

Pizza

I love Pizza, particularly Domino’s. It is one of my guilty pleasures, usually when my wife is out, to order Pizza delivery as the boys love it as well. However, they are expensive. A large pepperoni is £18.00, and once I have got all the extras for the boys I don’t get much change from £30!

I could nip out to Tesco and get some Dr Oetker (also delicious) for a lot less, but I don’t, and neither do millions of us around the world.

Thing is, the guys who started this knew we would be happy to part with our cash for yummy food with no effort, and my sermon today is a retrospective “if only I had done that” story.

You see, sometimes a business comes along which, unexpectedly perhaps, grows and grows without anyone really noticing. I have know about Domino’s for years, can’t remember my first one but was probably at least 20+ years ago.

And if I had INVESTED in Domino’s as little as six and a half years ago, I would be in a much better financial position that I am right now. But I didn’t even know about investing then, let alone how well this particualr business might have done. Let’s look at the numbers shall we?

If I had bought just £1,000 worth of shares on the first trading day of 2010 (Jan 4th) and sold them yesterday (22nd August 2016) I would have made over 1620% return…..!

My £1,000 would now be a handsome £17,200. You can do the maths to work out if one had invested more….

Seriously, which bank (or other retail investment) would have given you a return like that! I had some money in an ISA at that point (2010) and was getting a measly 3%. It’s worse now. I still can’t believe that people think investing in stocks is a bad idea! Here’s the chart for the geeks to admire –

DPZ chart

I have no idea if this is the end even, it was a bit further up today but who knows?

The point I am making here is that if you can spot a business which seems to be getting it right, has potential to grow and is realively cheap to buy (it was around $10 a share in 2010) never mind being a Dragon in the Den, just invest yourself in one of these great business opportunities and literally sit back and let the money roll in. Add dividends to this and the score is even higher.

Oh, if only we had known. But, now I do know about these things. No, it’s not easy to spot the winners every time, and you can’t predict the future, but with a proper strategy in place, this has to be a great way to get free Pizza doesn’t it?

Off for a healthy dinner now….

Love as ever,

 

Chris K

A disappointing day, is that really a problem?

stock-trading1Having recently seen markets at all time highs, there is always going to be room for downward movement. This is just the way of things. My own account reached a recent new high on Monday as well so taking a decline here should also not be unexpected.

But it’s always disappointing when your profits go down. Of course it is, that’s natural. But do I care?

Oh dear, it’s that yes and no answer again.

Thing is, trading IS emotional as the desire for gains is the reason to trade, and losing profits hurts. But, you have only to look at ANY chart and see that even on a good run, there will be down (red) days. You CAN’T expect trading to be all “green” days.

One way of administering pain relief on these days is to look at many stocks across the market to see how your own holdings play against others. And, if all your positions end in the red, you want to see many other markets also in the red. That makes you feel better. It isn’t just you who’s losing out, everyone is. Group therapy.

So when do you know if your recent “HIGH” really was the top and you should be pulling out of a position? Answer: You don’t. You can’t. So you have to just ride the rollercoaster and see where it takes you. You can of course use Technical indicators to choose your exit points, this takes the emotion out of your decision-making.

So, is a disappointing day a problem?

Absolutely not. If it is, you are missing the point! Every day is different and also unpredictable. It’s just nicer when it all goes in the direction you need. Those trades that consistently move against you should, if you are trading correctly, stop out. Only by letting the good ones run, despite disappointing days, will you gain over time. Nine out of my twelve current Spread Betting positions are profitable right now, one of the losing ones is only off by 18p!!

Disappointing is easy – it’s the disastrous days I don’t like…

Love as ever,

Chris K

Markets hit new highs – what now?

Today, the US Indices hit new record highs at the close. The Dow Jones last did this towards the end of July but has been flirting with new highs since May 2015. We had such a drop last August and then again in Jan/Feb ’16 that it has taken this long to get back to these sorts of levels.

So have I gained from this? Well, yes and no.

I should have gained a lot from this. I bought into the Dow at a low on Jan 20th at around 15,450 (I had been waiting for a low point and this seemed low enough) and in my mind I was going to hold this until the Dow reached 18,500, or at least 18,000 which I was sure it was going to this year.

In fact, I only held it until around 15,800 which was, in hindsight, pathetic!

It appears that the price I had bought at was pretty much the lowest it has been (so far!) all year. Of course I was not to know this and a few days later it began to drop back to near this level again, so I cashed in. Had I been braver and held it, I would have banked, by now, over 3,000 points. That’s a minimum £3,000.

So why did I sell of too early? Good old fear I’m afraid. This period of the year was highly volatile and it was always possible that we could have gone further down. I did want to bank something at least, so cashed in to avoid getting nothing. I had not had a particularly good start to the year so this was a welcome boost to funds at the time.  This is what can make trading so tricky, you can’t predict the future so you can only make decisions based on what you see each day. It was looking bad so I had to cash in.

That doesn’t mean of course that I have not benefitted from this steady rise this year. There have been plenty of opportunities, Brexit caused a shake up, but I picked one particular Jewelry brand up at the low point and today have over 800 points in my pocket with this.

So, as the title asks, what now? Well, of course I have no idea. August is traditionally a weak time for stocks, so reaching a new high is pretty remarkable.

But then again, 86% of people trading the Dow on IG right now think it is going down, and they have done for the last month. Considering most people get it wrong, this may well be a sign that this rise may continue. For a bit anyway.

At some point we will inevitably see a drop off. The last two years, September has been particularly weak and we may well see a repeat of this again. The US election is looming, and though the bookies have Clinton as the winner, markets don’t like uncertainty and may well hold off new highs again until after the result in November. Who knows?

I am still holding all my current positions at least until Sept. and will only think about selling if any major news comes in to spook the markets.

My next move at that point may well be to short the Dow or my other favourite market tracker, XIV.

FSTE is nearing all time highs as well. So much for Brexit losing all your pension money, quite the opposite. Now if only people realised this….

Love as ever,

Chris K

Good day for Biotechs – and Burgers.

 

Financial2So we are in the middle of Earnings Season in the US and I had a couple of Biotech firms which I am currently Spread Betting realease thier results today.

Normally, earnings are not particularly important for these type of companies as they generally make losses due to most of their budgets being spent on research. What I am waiting for is the news of succesful clinical trials or Government approval of new drugs etc.

In fact, on the whole, as earnings generally dissapoint, it is prudent to steer clear of these dates, though we tend not to see massive moves – like you might see on the big names like Apple or Twitter etc – they can still be a pain to open positions.

However, today two of my holdings came out well and went up. Yay! One was up 4.3% and the other 3.5%. Now, as I am spread betting and these are not large companies, this is only a few points, but none the less, this will point to hopefully a continuing move in the upward direction from here. All good.

Also, I own shares in a US Burger chain (not McD) which also released results today. I had missed this coming for some reason but was pleased to watch it climb a superior 13.4% for the day. This investment is currently up 17.3%.Now in which high street bank can you get returns like this in a few months??

I suppose you could say I am just trying to gain from human nature. Eat lots of burgers, then need drugs to cure you from the problems these bring you. Just seeing the world how it is….

Still a few more results for me to come this week….fingers crossed!

Love as ever,

Chris K.

First blog post….

First blog post….

Ok, so I now become a “Blogger”. Odd, as I’ve never read anyone else’s blogs but what I want to do is not appropriate for Facebook as that’s about friends, though I would be happy for my “Friends” to read this as well.

No, this is about my two personal passions so I can happily go on and on about them without bothering those who aren’t really that interested. And what are these passions I hear you ask? Well, one should be pretty obvious to anyone who knows me as that is Music. I studied music at the Guildhall in London and spend most of my time currently playing, teaching, writing or examining music.

The other “passion” is really quite new. I have only been thinking about this since late December 2013 and before this time I had only heard about it but had never known anything about it, certainly never imagined I would get involved in it and could not have predicted how fascinating and enjoyable I would have found it! It is, and the blog title does I suppose hint at this……Financial Trading.

Yes, that’s right, I trade the global financial markets pretty much every day. Sounds grand doesn’t it. Well, it kind of is, and it isn’t. I don’t have the kind of funds to invest that the big banks do so my profits/losses are currently insignificant in the grand scale of things but I am still a part of it and can see the sense it taking control of your own finances (I no longer pay into a pension fund) and if things continue the way they have been going, maybe one day I will be earning life changing sums of money from this.

So, I will keep this “first post” brief and let you know my thoughts on how I intend to continue with this. I will be creating two running themes in my blogs, one about all the things which I love about all my experiences in music – favourite “tunes”, comments on teaching and examining, tales about my own performing experiences and mostly my fascination with the development of music over the last 50 odd years.

My second, and likely to be more frequent (sorry but this is so much more interesting to me at the moment) theme will of course be about my trading experiences. I will probably comment on my own positions, how and why I do certain things and my personal takes on the state of markets etc. Who knows, if I get any readers, either of my thoughts may influence those who initially read for one. So I may get someone interested in Trading learn the best way to do a snare drum roll, or which UK number one was the first to feature all electronic instruments…Conversely, my musical followers may learn how they can start creating their own pension fund, or benefit financially from the next market crash!

Anyway, let’s see how this thing rolls, I am on holidays at the moment, well from teaching anyway, so it feels like holidays, so hopefully will have some spare time to keep things moving. If you can, do let me know which bit of content you enjoy and I’ll try to do more of it. Keep your negative thoughts to yourself though….

Love as ever,

Chris K